Higher Coffee Consumption Predicts Very Slightly Higher Resting Heart Rate (Pulse) for Population

Higher Coffee Consumption Predicts Very Slightly Higher Resting Heart Rate (Pulse) for Population

Contents

Variables

A
Coffee 326
A
Resting Heart Rate (Pulse) 2576

Categories

A
Foods 13415
A
Vital Signs 110

Actions

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Your Data

Tags

High Confidence
Very Weak Effect Size
Positive Relationship
Population Study
cause image gauge image effect image
Participants reported a 1% average increase in Resting Heart Rate (Pulse) following above average Coffee Consumption.

Abstract

Resting Heart Rate (Pulse) was generally 1% higher than average after a total of 1.14 serving of Coffee over the previous 13 days.

Aggregated data from 7 study participants suggests with a HIGH degree of confidence (p=0.116, 95% CI -2.037 to 2.183) that Coffee has a very weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.0732) with Resting Heart Rate.

The highest quartile of Resting Heart Rate measurements were observed following an average 1.9 serving Coffee per day.

The lowest quartile of Resting Heart Rate measurements were observed following an average 1.92 serving of Coffee per day.

After an onset delay of 30 minutes, Resting Heart Rate is typically 3% lower than average over the 13 days following around 1.92 serving of Coffee Coffee.

Keywords: Coffee, Resting Heart Rate, N-of-1 trials, real-world evidence, causal inference, observational study

Preliminary: Based on 7 participants. Results may change as more data is collected.

Results

Primary Findings

Analysis of 2,874 paired observations from 7 participants revealed a minimal improvement in Resting Heart Rate following above-average Coffee exposure.

+0.9%
Change from Baseline
Minimal effect on Resting Heart Rate
0.02
Predictor Impact Score
Insufficient evidence for causal relationship

Supporting Statistics

High
Confidence
0.073
Correlation (r)
p = 0.323
Significance
z = 0.48
Effect Magnitude
φ = 1.00
Temporality

What This Means

When participants had above-average Coffee:

  • Resting Heart Rate increased by 0.9% on average
  • Temporal analysis supports Coffee as the predictor (not the outcome)

Interpreting the Predictor Impact Score

The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) integrates multiple Bradford Hill causal criteria into a single metric. Use this guide to interpret the score:

PIS Range Interpretation Recommended Action
≥ 0.5 Strong evidence High priority for RCT validation
0.3 - 0.5 Moderate evidence Consider for experimental investigation
0.1 - 0.3 Weak evidence Monitor for additional data
< 0.1 Insufficient evidence Low priority; may be noise

Note: PIS is a prioritization heuristic, not proof of causation. High scores indicate relationships worth investigating, not confirmed causal effects. With only 7 participants, these scores are preliminary and will become more reliable as additional data is collected.

Optimal Daily Values

No clear dose-response relationship detected. The Coffee values associated with high and low Resting Heart Rate are too similar to provide meaningful dosing guidance. This may indicate a threshold effect (any amount works equally well), no effect, or insufficient data variance. With more participants, a clearer pattern may emerge.

Population Correlation

Coffee Distribution

Resting Heart Rate Distribution

Relationship Analysis

Statistical Summary

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Coffee Consumption
Effect Variable Name Resting Heart Rate (Pulse)
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.018424978463348
Confidence Level HIGH
Confidence Interval 2.1100234567925
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.0732
Critical T Value 1.6904285714286
Total Coffee Consumption Over Previous 13 days Before ABOVE Average Resting Heart Rate ( Pulse) 1.9 serving
Total Coffee Consumption Over Previous 13 days Before BELOW Average Resting Heart Rate ( Pulse) 1.92 serving
Duration of Action 13 days
Effect Size very weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 2874
Optimal Pearson Product 0.15159449914772
P Value 0.11593940650149
Statistical Significance 0.3228
Strength of Relationship 2.1100234567925
Study Type population
Analysis Performed At 2026-01-04
Number of Participants 7

Coffee Info

Property Value
Variable Name Coffee
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2021-07-18
Duration of Action 14 days
Filling Value 0
Kurtosis 12.33836841945
Maximum Allowed Value 40 serving
Mean 0.64430984666667 serving
Median 0.55333333333333 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Aggregate Predictors 0
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 326
Number of Measurements 4720
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 4174
Public true
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.40051808662978
Unit Serving
User Variables 559
UPC 813957023530
Variable Category Foods
Variable ID 84985
Variance 0.44569240881787

Resting Heart Rate (Pulse) Info

Property Value
Variable Name Resting Heart Rate (Pulse)
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2022-08-15
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.342903614242
Maximum Allowed Value 300 beats per minute
Mean 70.824646616541 beats per minute
Median 70.568541353383 beats per minute
Minimum Allowed Value 20 beats per minute
Number of Aggregate Predictors 2158
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 418
Number of Measurements 3677
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 3677
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 3.3013064237832
Unit Beats per Minute
User Variables 148
UPC 714169039954
Variable Category Vital Signs
Variable ID 5211891
Variance 15.937331897943

Introduction

Background

Coffee (Foods) and Resting Heart Rate (Vital Signs) are both important factors in understanding human health and well-being. This study investigates the relationship between these two variables using real-world observational data.

Traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), while the gold standard for causal inference, are often impractical, expensive, or unethical for studying many health relationships. Aggregated N-of-1 observational studies offer a complementary approach that leverages within-subject comparisons across large populations to identify meaningful patterns.

Research Question

Does Coffee affect Resting Heart Rate?

Additionally, we seek to determine:

  1. What is the direction and magnitude of any effect?
  2. How confident can we be in this relationship based on the available data?
  3. What are the optimal levels of Coffee for maximizing Resting Heart Rate?

Study Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Coffee and Resting Heart Rate. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Coffee values most likely to produce optimal Resting Heart Rate values.

Study Overview

This is a population-level observational study using aggregated N-of-1 methodology. By aggregating individual N-of-1 experiments, we can identify population-level patterns while accounting for the substantial individual variation that exists in most health relationships. Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline, enabling intuitive interpretation and comparison across different measures.

Full Methodology: Framework for Real-World Evidence-Based Pharmacovigilance: Aggregated N-of-1 Trials for Quantifying Treatment Effects

Discussion

Interpretation of Findings

Participants experienced a 0.9% improvement in Resting Heart Rate following above-average Coffee exposure. The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) of 0.02 indicates insufficient evidence for a causal relationship.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Resting Heart Rate is statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. The p-value of 0.3228 indicates there is less than a 32.28% probability that this result occurred by chance.

After treatment, a 1% increase (0.624 beats per minute) from the mean baseline 71.3 beats per minute was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 6.68571%. The observed change was 0.48 times the standard deviation.

A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value < 0.05).

T-Test Details
Observed t-value: 3.206
Critical t-value: 1.690

Since t = 3.21 > 1.69, we reject the null hypothesis.

Biological Plausibility

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between predictor and outcome is critical for interpreting observational findings. This is where human judgment excels beyond statistical analysis.

Community feedback on the biological plausibility of this relationship is still being collected. Consider the known mechanisms by which Coffee might influence Resting Heart Rate.

Bradford Hill Criteria Assessment

The Bradford Hill criteria provide a framework for assessing causality in observational studies. Our methodology operationalizes six of the nine criteria through the Predictor Impact Score (PIS):

Criterion How Addressed Metric
Strength Effect size magnitude Percent change from baseline (Δ%), z-score
Consistency Cross-participant replication Number of users (N), number of pairs (n)
Temporality Predictor precedes outcome Temporality factor (φ), onset delay (δ > 0)
Biological Gradient Dose-response relationship Gradient coefficient (φgradient)
Plausibility Biological mechanism assessment Community votes on mechanism plausibility
Specificity Category appropriateness Interest factor (finterest)

Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

The PIS integrates multiple Bradford Hill criteria into a composite metric quantifying how reliably a predictor affects an outcome. Higher scores indicate stronger evidence:

Population-Level PIS:

$$\text{PIS}_{\text{agg}} = |r_{\text{forward}}| \cdot w \cdot \phi_{\text{users}} \cdot \phi_{\text{pairs}} \cdot \phi_{\text{change}} \cdot \phi_{\text{gradient}}$$

Where φ-factors are saturation functions approaching 1 as evidence accumulates:

  • φusers = 1 - e-N/10 (user saturation)
  • φpairs = 1 - e-n/nsig (pair saturation)
  • φchange = 1 - e-Δspread/Δsig (effect spread saturation)
  • w = weighted average of plausibility votes

Temporality Assessment

We assess evidence for correct causal direction using the temporality factor:

$$\phi_{\text{temporal}} = \frac{|r_{\text{forward}}|}{|r_{\text{forward}}| + |r_{\text{reverse}}|}$$

Values approaching 1 indicate the predictor precedes the outcome (supporting causation); values near 0.5 suggest ambiguous directionality; values near 0 suggest reverse causation or confounding by indication.

Limitations

As with any observational study, correlation does not prove causation. Key limitations include:

  • Unmeasured confounders: Variables not tracked may influence results
  • Self-selection bias: Health trackers may differ from the general population
  • Measurement error: Self-reported data may contain recall bias
  • Confounding by indication: Sicker individuals may use more treatments

However, within-subject comparison and temporal precedence analysis partially mitigate these limitations. If the relationship is merely coincidental, as participants independently modify their Coffee values, the observed strength will decline over time. Spurious correlations naturally dissipate as more data is collected.

Future Directions

Future research should examine:

  • Subgroup analyses to identify individual differences in response
  • Potential confounders and mediators of the observed relationship
  • Optimal dosing and timing for Coffee
  • Confirmation through prospective or randomized designs
  • Biological mechanisms underlying the observed effects

Conclusion

📊 Preliminary Findings: With 7 participants, these results are based on limited data. Effect sizes and confidence will improve as more participants contribute data. Consider these findings directional rather than definitive.

Above-average Coffee was associated with a 0.9% improvement in Resting Heart Rate—a minimal effect. The Predictor Impact Score of 0.02 indicates this relationship is requiring additional data before conclusions.

Bottom Line: Based on a PIS of 0.02 and a 0.9% effect size, this relationship currently lacks sufficient evidence. Continue monitoring as more data becomes available. Note: These conclusions may strengthen or change direction as more data is collected.

These findings contribute to our understanding of how Coffee may influence Resting Heart Rate in real-world conditions. While preliminary, these results may inform future research directions. As more participants contribute data, the reliability and precision of these findings will improve substantially.

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Methods

Study Design

This study is based on data donated by 7 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 7 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.

This within-subject design is powerful because it controls for all stable individual characteristics (genetics, baseline health status, socioeconomic factors) that might otherwise confound the relationship between variables.

Data Analysis

Temporal Assumptions

The analysis incorporates temporal assumptions about the relationship between variables:

  • Onset Delay: It was assumed that 30 minutes would pass before a change in Coffee would produce an observable change in Resting Heart Rate.
  • Duration of Action: It was assumed that Coffee could produce an observable change in Resting Heart Rate for as much as 13 days after the stimulus event.

Statistical Methods

For each participant, we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between Coffee values and subsequent Resting Heart Rate values. Individual correlations were then aggregated using Fisher's z-transformation to produce a population-level estimate:

Individual Correlation:

$$r_i = \frac{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)}{\sqrt{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)^2 \sum(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)^2}}$$

Fisher's Z-Transformation:

$$z_i = \frac{1}{2} \ln\left(\frac{1 + r_i}{1 - r_i}\right)$$

Aggregated Correlation:

$$\bar{r} = \tanh(\bar{z}) \quad \text{where} \quad \bar{z} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} z_i$$

Effect Size Calculation

Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline. For each participant, we compare the outcome following above-average predictor values to the overall baseline outcome:

$$\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}} = \frac{\bar{O}_{\text{follow-up}} - \bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}}{\bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}} \times 100$$

Effect Magnitude (Z-Score)

To assess effect magnitude relative to natural variability, we calculate the z-score:

$$z = \frac{|\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}}|}{\text{RSD}_{\text{baseline}}}$$

where RSDbaseline is the relative standard deviation of outcome during baseline period

A z-score > 2 indicates statistical significance (p < 0.05), meaning the observed change exceeds typical baseline fluctuation and is unlikely due to random variation.

Statistical Significance

Correlation significance is assessed using a two-tailed t-test:

$$t = \frac{r\sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}}$$

We reject the null hypothesis (ρ = 0) at α = 0.05 when |t| exceeds the critical value, providing statistical evidence that the observed relationship is not due to chance.

Data Sources

Coffee data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Resting Heart Rate data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Data Quality

Data quality measures were applied to ensure reliable results:

  • Minimum Data Requirement: Only participants with sufficient paired observations were included in the analysis.
  • Outlier Handling: Extreme values were winsorized to reduce the influence of measurement errors.
  • Missing Data: Days with missing values were handled using appropriate filling strategies based on the variable type.
  • Test User Exclusion: Test accounts and invalid users were excluded from all analyses.

Principal Investigator

Program & Methods

Mike P. Sinn
Sinn, M. P.

Designed and implemented data collection, aggregation, causal inference pipeline, and automated study generation framework. Developed the Predictor Impact Score methodology operationalizing Bradford Hill criteria for ranking causal relationships in observational data. When he tells people this at parties, they usually say they have to go check on their car.

Individual study outputs are automated, reproducible, and open to external audit. (Which I would seriously recommend.)

Contact

Cite This Study

APA Format
Sinn, M. P. (2026). Causal Analysis: Does Coffee Affect Resting Heart Rate (Pulse)?. The Journal of Citizen Science. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-84985-effect-5211891-population-study
BibTeX 
@misc{sinn_cause_84985_effect_5211891_population_study_2026,
  author = {Sinn, Mike P.},
  title = {Causal Analysis: Does Coffee Affect Resting Heart Rate (Pulse)?},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {The Journal of Citizen Science},
  url = {https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-84985-effect-5211891-population-study},
  note = {Accessed: January 7, 2026}
}
Chicago/Turabian
Sinn, Mike P. "Causal Analysis: Does Coffee Affect Resting Heart Rate (Pulse)?." The Journal of Citizen Science. Accessed January 7, 2026. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-84985-effect-5211891-population-study.
Harvard
Sinn, M.P., 2026. Causal Analysis: Does Coffee Affect Resting Heart Rate (Pulse)?. [Aggregated N-of-1 Study] The Journal of Citizen Science. Available at: https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-84985-effect-5211891-population-study [Accessed January 7, 2026].

Study Type: Aggregated N-of-1 Observational Mega-Study
Evidence Level: Level II (Real-World Evidence)
Methodology: Bradford Hill Criteria with Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

References

This framework was originally developed in 2013 based on the Bradford Hill criteria. Subsequent literature has independently validated similar approaches to causal inference from observational data:

  1. Hill, A.B. (1965). The environment and disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58(5), 295-300. [Bradford Hill criteria]
  2. Lillie, E.O., et al. (2011). The n-of-1 clinical trial: the ultimate strategy for individualizing medicine? Personalized Medicine, 8(2), 161-173. [N-of-1 methodology]
  3. Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference . Cambridge University Press. [Causal inference]
  4. Hernán, M.A., & Robins, J.M. (2020). Causal Inference: What If . Chapman & Hall/CRC. [Free textbook]
  5. FDA (2018). Framework for FDA's Real-World Evidence Program . U.S. Food and Drug Administration. [Regulatory context]
  6. Duan, N., et al. (2013). Single-patient (n-of-1) trials: a pragmatic clinical decision methodology . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 66(8), S21-S28.
  7. Platt, R., et al. (2018). The FDA Sentinel Initiative—an evolving national resource . New England Journal of Medicine, 379(22), 2091-2093.

This information is for research and educational purposes only, not medical advice. Consult a healthcare provider before making health decisions. Terms of Service

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