Higher Sprite Consumption Predicts Moderately Higher Fear for Population

Higher Sprite Consumption Predicts Moderately Higher Fear for Population

Contents

Variables

A
Sprite 60
A
Fear 1115

Categories

A
Foods 13415
A
Emotions 2028

Actions

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Your Data

Tags

Low Confidence
Weak Effect Size
Positive Relationship
Population Study
cause image gauge image effect image
Participants reported a 44.4% average increase in Fear following above average Sprite Consumption.

Abstract

Fear was generally 18.4% higher than average after 0 serving of Sprite per 14 days.

Aggregated data from 1 study participants suggests with a LOW degree of confidence (p=0.12, 95% CI 0.008 to 0.78) that Sprite has a moderately positive predictive relationship (R=0.394) with Fear.

The highest quartile of Fear measurements were observed following an average 1.38 serving Sprite per day.

The lowest quartile of Fear measurements were observed following an average 0.556 serving of Sprite per day.

After an onset delay of 30 minutes, Fear is typically 10% lower than average over the 14 days following around 0.556 serving of Sprite Sprite.

Keywords: Sprite, Fear, N-of-1 trials, real-world evidence, causal inference, observational study

Preliminary: Based on 1 participants. Results may change as more data is collected.

Results

Primary Findings

Analysis of 22 paired observations from 1 participants revealed a moderate improvement in Fear following above-average Sprite exposure.

+18.4%
Change from Baseline
Moderate effect on Fear
0.04
Predictor Impact Score
Insufficient evidence for causal relationship

Supporting Statistics

Low
Confidence
0.394
Correlation (r)
p = 0.062
Significance
z = 0.61
Effect Magnitude
φ = 1.00
Temporality

What This Means

When participants had above-average Sprite:

  • Fear increased by 18.4% on average
  • Temporal analysis supports Sprite as the predictor (not the outcome)

Interpreting the Predictor Impact Score

The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) integrates multiple Bradford Hill causal criteria into a single metric. Use this guide to interpret the score:

PIS Range Interpretation Recommended Action
≥ 0.5 Strong evidence High priority for RCT validation
0.3 - 0.5 Moderate evidence Consider for experimental investigation
0.1 - 0.3 Weak evidence Monitor for additional data
< 0.1 Insufficient evidence Low priority; may be noise

Note: PIS is a prioritization heuristic, not proof of causation. High scores indicate relationships worth investigating, not confirmed causal effects. With only 1 participants, these scores are preliminary and will become more reliable as additional data is collected.

Optimal Daily Values (Precision Dosing)

Based on the observed relationship, we can estimate the predictor values associated with the best and worst outcomes. These values enable personalized dosing recommendations.

⚠️ Preliminary Data: With 1 participants and 22 observations, these optimal values are preliminary estimates. As more data is collected, precision will improve significantly.

2.0 serving
Value Predicting Higher Fear
Average Sprite when Fear exceeded its mean
0.0 serving
Value Predicting Lower Fear
Average Sprite when Fear was below its mean

What This Suggests

Fear tended to be highest when Sprite was around 2.0 serving.

Important: These values reflect correlations, not guaranteed causal effects. Individual responses may vary. Use as a starting point for personal experimentation, not as a definitive prescription. Consult healthcare providers before making treatment decisions.

Population Correlation

Sprite Distribution

Fear Distribution

Relationship Analysis

Statistical Summary

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Sprite Consumption
Effect Variable Name Fear
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.03749405670393
Confidence Level LOW
Confidence Interval 0.38639287869136
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.394
Critical T Value 1.717
Total Sprite Consumption Over Previous 14 days Before ABOVE Average Fear 1.38 serving
Total Sprite Consumption Over Previous 14 days Before BELOW Average Fear 0.556 serving
Duration of Action 14 days
Effect Size moderately positive
Number of Paired Measurements 22
Optimal Pearson Product 0.26075586100521
P Value 0.12027899780742
Statistical Significance 0.0623
Strength of Relationship 0.38639287869136
Study Type population
Analysis Performed At 2026-01-04
Number of Participants 1

Sprite Info

Property Value
Variable Name Sprite
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2021-01-25
Duration of Action 14 days
Filling Value 0
Kurtosis 75.158478197885
Maximum Allowed Value 40 serving
Mean 0.36238733333333 serving
Median 0.33333333333333 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Aggregate Predictors 0
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 60
Number of Measurements 32
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 32
Public true
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.16727485685999
Unit Serving
User Variables 3
UPC 049000028928
Variable Category Foods
Variable ID 1656
Variance 0.041971316606293

Fear Info

Property Value
Variable Name Fear
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2020-09-17
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.4116931250559
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.2840202686203 out of 5
Median 2.2359612572647 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Aggregate Predictors 1002
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 113
Number of Measurements 22861
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 22709
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.47483589524388
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
User Variables 1670
UPC 0
Variable Category Emotions
Variable ID 1313
Variance 0.56609015151219

Introduction

Background

Sprite (Foods) and Fear (Emotions) are both important factors in understanding human health and well-being. This study investigates the relationship between these two variables using real-world observational data.

Traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), while the gold standard for causal inference, are often impractical, expensive, or unethical for studying many health relationships. Aggregated N-of-1 observational studies offer a complementary approach that leverages within-subject comparisons across large populations to identify meaningful patterns.

Research Question

Does Sprite affect Fear?

Additionally, we seek to determine:

  1. What is the direction and magnitude of any effect?
  2. How confident can we be in this relationship based on the available data?
  3. What are the optimal levels of Sprite for maximizing Fear?

Study Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Sprite and Fear. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Sprite values most likely to produce optimal Fear values.

Study Overview

This is a population-level observational study using aggregated N-of-1 methodology. By aggregating individual N-of-1 experiments, we can identify population-level patterns while accounting for the substantial individual variation that exists in most health relationships. Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline, enabling intuitive interpretation and comparison across different measures.

Full Methodology: Framework for Real-World Evidence-Based Pharmacovigilance: Aggregated N-of-1 Trials for Quantifying Treatment Effects

Discussion

Interpretation of Findings

Participants experienced a 18.4% improvement in Fear following above-average Sprite exposure. The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) of 0.04 indicates insufficient evidence for a causal relationship.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Fear is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. This suggests that the Sprite value may not have a significant influence on the Fear value, or that more data is needed to detect an effect.

After treatment, a 44.4% increase (0.292 out of 5) from the mean baseline 1.58 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 30%. The observed change was 0.614304 times the standard deviation.

A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value < 0.05).

T-Test Details
Observed t-value: 1.549
Critical t-value: 1.717

Since t = 1.55 < 1.72, we cannot reject the null hypothesis.

Biological Plausibility

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between predictor and outcome is critical for interpreting observational findings. This is where human judgment excels beyond statistical analysis.

Community feedback on the biological plausibility of this relationship is still being collected. Consider the known mechanisms by which Sprite might influence Fear.

Bradford Hill Criteria Assessment

The Bradford Hill criteria provide a framework for assessing causality in observational studies. Our methodology operationalizes six of the nine criteria through the Predictor Impact Score (PIS):

Criterion How Addressed Metric
Strength Effect size magnitude Percent change from baseline (Δ%), z-score
Consistency Cross-participant replication Number of users (N), number of pairs (n)
Temporality Predictor precedes outcome Temporality factor (φ), onset delay (δ > 0)
Biological Gradient Dose-response relationship Gradient coefficient (φgradient)
Plausibility Biological mechanism assessment Community votes on mechanism plausibility
Specificity Category appropriateness Interest factor (finterest)

Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

The PIS integrates multiple Bradford Hill criteria into a composite metric quantifying how reliably a predictor affects an outcome. Higher scores indicate stronger evidence:

Population-Level PIS:

$$\text{PIS}_{\text{agg}} = |r_{\text{forward}}| \cdot w \cdot \phi_{\text{users}} \cdot \phi_{\text{pairs}} \cdot \phi_{\text{change}} \cdot \phi_{\text{gradient}}$$

Where φ-factors are saturation functions approaching 1 as evidence accumulates:

  • φusers = 1 - e-N/10 (user saturation)
  • φpairs = 1 - e-n/nsig (pair saturation)
  • φchange = 1 - e-Δspread/Δsig (effect spread saturation)
  • w = weighted average of plausibility votes

Temporality Assessment

We assess evidence for correct causal direction using the temporality factor:

$$\phi_{\text{temporal}} = \frac{|r_{\text{forward}}|}{|r_{\text{forward}}| + |r_{\text{reverse}}|}$$

Values approaching 1 indicate the predictor precedes the outcome (supporting causation); values near 0.5 suggest ambiguous directionality; values near 0 suggest reverse causation or confounding by indication.

Limitations

As with any observational study, correlation does not prove causation. Key limitations include:

  • Unmeasured confounders: Variables not tracked may influence results
  • Self-selection bias: Health trackers may differ from the general population
  • Measurement error: Self-reported data may contain recall bias
  • Confounding by indication: Sicker individuals may use more treatments

However, within-subject comparison and temporal precedence analysis partially mitigate these limitations. If the relationship is merely coincidental, as participants independently modify their Sprite values, the observed strength will decline over time. Spurious correlations naturally dissipate as more data is collected.

Future Directions

Future research should examine:

  • Subgroup analyses to identify individual differences in response
  • Potential confounders and mediators of the observed relationship
  • Optimal dosing and timing for Sprite
  • Confirmation through prospective or randomized designs
  • Biological mechanisms underlying the observed effects

Conclusion

📊 Preliminary Findings: With 1 participants, these results are based on limited data. Effect sizes and confidence will improve as more participants contribute data. Consider these findings directional rather than definitive.

Above-average Sprite was associated with a 18.4% improvement in Fear—a moderate effect. The Predictor Impact Score of 0.04 indicates this relationship is requiring additional data before conclusions.

Bottom Line: Based on a PIS of 0.04 and a 18.4% effect size, this relationship currently lacks sufficient evidence. Continue monitoring as more data becomes available. Note: These conclusions may strengthen or change direction as more data is collected.

These findings contribute to our understanding of how Sprite may influence Fear in real-world conditions. While preliminary, these results may inform future research directions. As more participants contribute data, the reliability and precision of these findings will improve substantially.

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Methods

Study Design

This study is based on data donated by 1 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 1 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.

This within-subject design is powerful because it controls for all stable individual characteristics (genetics, baseline health status, socioeconomic factors) that might otherwise confound the relationship between variables.

Data Analysis

Temporal Assumptions

The analysis incorporates temporal assumptions about the relationship between variables:

  • Onset Delay: It was assumed that 30 minutes would pass before a change in Sprite would produce an observable change in Fear.
  • Duration of Action: It was assumed that Sprite could produce an observable change in Fear for as much as 14 days after the stimulus event.

Statistical Methods

For each participant, we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between Sprite values and subsequent Fear values. Individual correlations were then aggregated using Fisher's z-transformation to produce a population-level estimate:

Individual Correlation:

$$r_i = \frac{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)}{\sqrt{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)^2 \sum(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)^2}}$$

Fisher's Z-Transformation:

$$z_i = \frac{1}{2} \ln\left(\frac{1 + r_i}{1 - r_i}\right)$$

Aggregated Correlation:

$$\bar{r} = \tanh(\bar{z}) \quad \text{where} \quad \bar{z} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} z_i$$

Effect Size Calculation

Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline. For each participant, we compare the outcome following above-average predictor values to the overall baseline outcome:

$$\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}} = \frac{\bar{O}_{\text{follow-up}} - \bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}}{\bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}} \times 100$$

Effect Magnitude (Z-Score)

To assess effect magnitude relative to natural variability, we calculate the z-score:

$$z = \frac{|\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}}|}{\text{RSD}_{\text{baseline}}}$$

where RSDbaseline is the relative standard deviation of outcome during baseline period

A z-score > 2 indicates statistical significance (p < 0.05), meaning the observed change exceeds typical baseline fluctuation and is unlikely due to random variation.

Statistical Significance

Correlation significance is assessed using a two-tailed t-test:

$$t = \frac{r\sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}}$$

We reject the null hypothesis (ρ = 0) at α = 0.05 when |t| exceeds the critical value, providing statistical evidence that the observed relationship is not due to chance.

Data Sources

Sprite data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Fear data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Data Quality

Data quality measures were applied to ensure reliable results:

  • Minimum Data Requirement: Only participants with sufficient paired observations were included in the analysis.
  • Outlier Handling: Extreme values were winsorized to reduce the influence of measurement errors.
  • Missing Data: Days with missing values were handled using appropriate filling strategies based on the variable type.
  • Test User Exclusion: Test accounts and invalid users were excluded from all analyses.

Principal Investigator

Program & Methods

Mike P. Sinn
Sinn, M. P.

Designed and implemented data collection, aggregation, causal inference pipeline, and automated study generation framework. Developed the Predictor Impact Score methodology operationalizing Bradford Hill criteria for ranking causal relationships in observational data. When he tells people this at parties, they usually say they have to go check on their car.

Individual study outputs are automated, reproducible, and open to external audit. (Which I would seriously recommend.)

Contact

Cite This Study

APA Format
Sinn, M. P. (2026). Causal Analysis: Does Sprite Affect Fear?. The Journal of Citizen Science. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-1656-effect-1313-population-study
BibTeX 
@misc{sinn_cause_1656_effect_1313_population_study_2026,
  author = {Sinn, Mike P.},
  title = {Causal Analysis: Does Sprite Affect Fear?},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {The Journal of Citizen Science},
  url = {https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-1656-effect-1313-population-study},
  note = {Accessed: January 9, 2026}
}
Chicago/Turabian
Sinn, Mike P. "Causal Analysis: Does Sprite Affect Fear?." The Journal of Citizen Science. Accessed January 9, 2026. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-1656-effect-1313-population-study.
Harvard
Sinn, M.P., 2026. Causal Analysis: Does Sprite Affect Fear?. [Aggregated N-of-1 Study] The Journal of Citizen Science. Available at: https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-1656-effect-1313-population-study [Accessed January 9, 2026].

Study Type: Aggregated N-of-1 Observational Mega-Study
Evidence Level: Level II (Real-World Evidence)
Methodology: Bradford Hill Criteria with Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

References

This framework was originally developed in 2013 based on the Bradford Hill criteria. Subsequent literature has independently validated similar approaches to causal inference from observational data:

  1. Hill, A.B. (1965). The environment and disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58(5), 295-300. [Bradford Hill criteria]
  2. Lillie, E.O., et al. (2011). The n-of-1 clinical trial: the ultimate strategy for individualizing medicine? Personalized Medicine, 8(2), 161-173. [N-of-1 methodology]
  3. Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference . Cambridge University Press. [Causal inference]
  4. Hernán, M.A., & Robins, J.M. (2020). Causal Inference: What If . Chapman & Hall/CRC. [Free textbook]
  5. FDA (2018). Framework for FDA's Real-World Evidence Program . U.S. Food and Drug Administration. [Regulatory context]
  6. Duan, N., et al. (2013). Single-patient (n-of-1) trials: a pragmatic clinical decision methodology . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 66(8), S21-S28.
  7. Platt, R., et al. (2018). The FDA Sentinel Initiative—an evolving national resource . New England Journal of Medicine, 379(22), 2091-2093.

This information is for research and educational purposes only, not medical advice. Consult a healthcare provider before making health decisions. Terms of Service

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