Higher Maple Pollen Index Predicts Moderately Lower Sleep Duration for Population

Higher Maple Pollen Index Predicts Moderately Lower Sleep Duration for Population

Contents

Variables

A
Maple Pollen Index 17
A
Sleep Duration 3379

Categories

A
Environment 564
A
Sleep 111

Actions

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Your Data

Tags

Medium Confidence
Moderate Effect Size
Negative Relationship
Population Study
cause image gauge image effect image
Participants reported a 40.3% average decrease in Sleep Duration following above average Maple Pollen Index.

Abstract

Sleep Duration was generally 17% higher than average after an average of 6.8 index of Maple Pollen Index over the previous 7 days.

Aggregated data from 1 study participants suggests with a MEDIUM degree of confidence (p=0.0124, 95% CI -1.147 to 0.027) that Maple Pollen Index has a moderately negative predictive relationship (R=-0.56) with Sleep Duration.

The highest quartile of Sleep Duration measurements were observed following an average 7 index Maple Pollen Index.

The lowest quartile of Sleep Duration measurements were observed following an average 9.08 index of Maple Pollen Index.

After an onset delay of 0 seconds, Sleep Duration is typically 5% lower than average over the 7 days following around 9.08 index of Maple Pollen Index Maple Pollen Index.

Keywords: Maple Pollen Index, Sleep Duration, N-of-1 trials, real-world evidence, causal inference, observational study

Preliminary: Based on 1 participants. Results may change as more data is collected.

Results

Primary Findings

Analysis of 72 paired observations from 1 participants revealed a substantial reduction in Sleep Duration following above-average Maple Pollen Index exposure.

-25.7%
Change from Baseline
Substantial effect on Sleep Duration
0.03
Predictor Impact Score
Insufficient evidence for causal relationship

Supporting Statistics

Low
Confidence
-0.560
Correlation (r)
p = 0.731
Significance
z = 0.88
Effect Magnitude
φ = 1.00
Temporality

What This Means

When participants had above-average Maple Pollen Index:

  • Sleep Duration decreased by 25.7% on average
  • Temporal analysis supports Maple Pollen Index as the predictor (not the outcome)

Interpreting the Predictor Impact Score

The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) integrates multiple Bradford Hill causal criteria into a single metric. Use this guide to interpret the score:

PIS Range Interpretation Recommended Action
≥ 0.5 Strong evidence High priority for RCT validation
0.3 - 0.5 Moderate evidence Consider for experimental investigation
0.1 - 0.3 Weak evidence Monitor for additional data
< 0.1 Insufficient evidence Low priority; may be noise

Note: PIS is a prioritization heuristic, not proof of causation. High scores indicate relationships worth investigating, not confirmed causal effects. With only 1 participants, these scores are preliminary and will become more reliable as additional data is collected.

Optimal Daily Values (Precision Dosing)

Based on the observed relationship, we can estimate the predictor values associated with the best and worst outcomes. These values enable personalized dosing recommendations.

⚠️ Preliminary Data: With 1 participants and 72 observations, these optimal values are preliminary estimates. As more data is collected, precision will improve significantly.

6.8 index
Value Predicting Higher Sleep Duration
Average Maple Pollen Index when Sleep Duration exceeded its mean
9.2 index
Value Predicting Lower Sleep Duration
Average Maple Pollen Index when Sleep Duration was below its mean

What This Suggests

Sleep Duration tended to be lowest (best) when Maple Pollen Index was around 9.2 index.

Important: These values reflect correlations, not guaranteed causal effects. Individual responses may vary. Use as a starting point for personal experimentation, not as a definitive prescription. Consult healthcare providers before making treatment decisions.

Population Correlation

Maple Pollen Index Distribution

Sleep Duration Distribution

Statistical Summary

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Maple Pollen Index
Effect Variable Name Sleep Duration
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.026645523063374
Confidence Level MEDIUM
Confidence Interval 0.58673
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient -0.56
Critical T Value 1.664
Average Maple Pollen Index Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Sleep Duration 7 index
Average Maple Pollen Index Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Sleep Duration 9.08 index
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size moderately negative
Number of Paired Measurements 72
Optimal Pearson Product 0.42912697467576
P Value 0.012448
Statistical Significance 0.7311
Strength of Relationship 0.58673
Study Type population
Analysis Performed At 2026-01-04
Number of Participants 1

Maple Pollen Index Info

Property Value
Variable Name Maple Pollen Index
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2020-10-11
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.1649369964419
Mean 7.7599636233207 index
Median 8.0880081300813 index
Minimum Allowed Value 0 index
Number of Aggregate Predictors 0
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 17
Number of Measurements 5238
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 732
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 2.4227299718131
Unit Index
User Variables 123
Variable Category Environment
Variable ID 6038280
Variance 6.5146023313671

Sleep Duration Info

Property Value
Variable Name Sleep Duration
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2020-10-11
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.1431132810239
Maximum Allowed Value 16 hours
Mean 7 hours
Median 7 hours
Minimum Allowed Value 6 minutes
Number of Aggregate Predictors 3162
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 217
Number of Measurements 43055
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 16052
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 1.2204190250991
Unit Hours
User Variables 404
UPC 067981966602
Variable Category Sleep
Variable ID 1867
Variance 2.1855287054824

Introduction

Background

Maple Pollen Index (Environment) and Sleep Duration (Sleep) are both important factors in understanding human health and well-being. This study investigates the relationship between these two variables using real-world observational data.

Traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), while the gold standard for causal inference, are often impractical, expensive, or unethical for studying many health relationships. Aggregated N-of-1 observational studies offer a complementary approach that leverages within-subject comparisons across large populations to identify meaningful patterns.

Research Question

Does Maple Pollen Index affect Sleep Duration?

Additionally, we seek to determine:

  1. What is the direction and magnitude of any effect?
  2. How confident can we be in this relationship based on the available data?
  3. What are the optimal levels of Maple Pollen Index for maximizing Sleep Duration?

Study Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Maple Pollen Index and Sleep Duration. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Maple Pollen Index values most likely to produce optimal Sleep Duration values.

Study Overview

This is a population-level observational study using aggregated N-of-1 methodology. By aggregating individual N-of-1 experiments, we can identify population-level patterns while accounting for the substantial individual variation that exists in most health relationships. Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline, enabling intuitive interpretation and comparison across different measures.

Full Methodology: Framework for Real-World Evidence-Based Pharmacovigilance: Aggregated N-of-1 Trials for Quantifying Treatment Effects

Discussion

Interpretation of Findings

Participants experienced a 25.7% reduction in Sleep Duration following above-average Maple Pollen Index exposure. The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) of 0.03 indicates insufficient evidence for a causal relationship.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Sleep Duration is statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. The p-value of 0.7311 indicates there is less than a 73.11% probability that this result occurred by chance.

After treatment, a 40.3% decrease (negative 76 minutes) from the mean baseline 5 hours was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 29.3%. The observed change was 0.87673 times the standard deviation.

A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value < 0.05).

T-Test Details
Observed t-value: 2.633
Critical t-value: 1.664

Since t = 2.63 > 1.66, we reject the null hypothesis.

Biological Plausibility

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between predictor and outcome is critical for interpreting observational findings. This is where human judgment excels beyond statistical analysis.

Community feedback on the biological plausibility of this relationship is still being collected. Consider the known mechanisms by which Maple Pollen Index might influence Sleep Duration.

Bradford Hill Criteria Assessment

The Bradford Hill criteria provide a framework for assessing causality in observational studies. Our methodology operationalizes six of the nine criteria through the Predictor Impact Score (PIS):

Criterion How Addressed Metric
Strength Effect size magnitude Percent change from baseline (Δ%), z-score
Consistency Cross-participant replication Number of users (N), number of pairs (n)
Temporality Predictor precedes outcome Temporality factor (φ), onset delay (δ > 0)
Biological Gradient Dose-response relationship Gradient coefficient (φgradient)
Plausibility Biological mechanism assessment Community votes on mechanism plausibility
Specificity Category appropriateness Interest factor (finterest)

Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

The PIS integrates multiple Bradford Hill criteria into a composite metric quantifying how reliably a predictor affects an outcome. Higher scores indicate stronger evidence:

Population-Level PIS:

$$\text{PIS}_{\text{agg}} = |r_{\text{forward}}| \cdot w \cdot \phi_{\text{users}} \cdot \phi_{\text{pairs}} \cdot \phi_{\text{change}} \cdot \phi_{\text{gradient}}$$

Where φ-factors are saturation functions approaching 1 as evidence accumulates:

  • φusers = 1 - e-N/10 (user saturation)
  • φpairs = 1 - e-n/nsig (pair saturation)
  • φchange = 1 - e-Δspread/Δsig (effect spread saturation)
  • w = weighted average of plausibility votes

Temporality Assessment

We assess evidence for correct causal direction using the temporality factor:

$$\phi_{\text{temporal}} = \frac{|r_{\text{forward}}|}{|r_{\text{forward}}| + |r_{\text{reverse}}|}$$

Values approaching 1 indicate the predictor precedes the outcome (supporting causation); values near 0.5 suggest ambiguous directionality; values near 0 suggest reverse causation or confounding by indication.

Limitations

As with any observational study, correlation does not prove causation. Key limitations include:

  • Unmeasured confounders: Variables not tracked may influence results
  • Self-selection bias: Health trackers may differ from the general population
  • Measurement error: Self-reported data may contain recall bias
  • Confounding by indication: Sicker individuals may use more treatments

However, within-subject comparison and temporal precedence analysis partially mitigate these limitations. If the relationship is merely coincidental, as participants independently modify their Maple Pollen Index values, the observed strength will decline over time. Spurious correlations naturally dissipate as more data is collected.

Future Directions

Future research should examine:

  • Subgroup analyses to identify individual differences in response
  • Potential confounders and mediators of the observed relationship
  • Optimal dosing and timing for Maple Pollen Index
  • Confirmation through prospective or randomized designs
  • Biological mechanisms underlying the observed effects

Conclusion

📊 Preliminary Findings: With 1 participants, these results are based on limited data. Effect sizes and confidence will improve as more participants contribute data. Consider these findings directional rather than definitive.

Above-average Maple Pollen Index was associated with a 25.7% reduction in Sleep Duration—a substantial effect. The Predictor Impact Score of 0.03 indicates this relationship is requiring additional data before conclusions.

Bottom Line: Based on a PIS of 0.03 and a 25.7% effect size, this relationship currently lacks sufficient evidence. Continue monitoring as more data becomes available. Note: These conclusions may strengthen or change direction as more data is collected.

These findings contribute to our understanding of how Maple Pollen Index may influence Sleep Duration in real-world conditions. While preliminary, these results may inform future research directions. As more participants contribute data, the reliability and precision of these findings will improve substantially.

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Methods

Study Design

This study is based on data donated by 1 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 1 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.

This within-subject design is powerful because it controls for all stable individual characteristics (genetics, baseline health status, socioeconomic factors) that might otherwise confound the relationship between variables.

Data Analysis

Temporal Assumptions

The analysis incorporates temporal assumptions about the relationship between variables:

  • Onset Delay: It was assumed that 0 seconds would pass before a change in Maple Pollen Index would produce an observable change in Sleep Duration.
  • Duration of Action: It was assumed that Maple Pollen Index could produce an observable change in Sleep Duration for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.

Statistical Methods

For each participant, we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between Maple Pollen Index values and subsequent Sleep Duration values. Individual correlations were then aggregated using Fisher's z-transformation to produce a population-level estimate:

Individual Correlation:

$$r_i = \frac{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)}{\sqrt{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)^2 \sum(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)^2}}$$

Fisher's Z-Transformation:

$$z_i = \frac{1}{2} \ln\left(\frac{1 + r_i}{1 - r_i}\right)$$

Aggregated Correlation:

$$\bar{r} = \tanh(\bar{z}) \quad \text{where} \quad \bar{z} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} z_i$$

Effect Size Calculation

Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline. For each participant, we compare the outcome following above-average predictor values to the overall baseline outcome:

$$\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}} = \frac{\bar{O}_{\text{follow-up}} - \bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}}{\bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}} \times 100$$

Effect Magnitude (Z-Score)

To assess effect magnitude relative to natural variability, we calculate the z-score:

$$z = \frac{|\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}}|}{\text{RSD}_{\text{baseline}}}$$

where RSDbaseline is the relative standard deviation of outcome during baseline period

A z-score > 2 indicates statistical significance (p < 0.05), meaning the observed change exceeds typical baseline fluctuation and is unlikely due to random variation.

Statistical Significance

Correlation significance is assessed using a two-tailed t-test:

$$t = \frac{r\sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}}$$

We reject the null hypothesis (ρ = 0) at α = 0.05 when |t| exceeds the critical value, providing statistical evidence that the observed relationship is not due to chance.

Data Sources

Maple Pollen Index data was primarily collected using Pollen Count. Automatically import pollen count for various species and find out how it could be affecting your symptoms.

Sleep Duration data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Data Quality

Data quality measures were applied to ensure reliable results:

  • Minimum Data Requirement: Only participants with sufficient paired observations were included in the analysis.
  • Outlier Handling: Extreme values were winsorized to reduce the influence of measurement errors.
  • Missing Data: Days with missing values were handled using appropriate filling strategies based on the variable type.
  • Test User Exclusion: Test accounts and invalid users were excluded from all analyses.

Principal Investigator

Program & Methods

Mike P. Sinn
Sinn, M. P.

Designed and implemented data collection, aggregation, causal inference pipeline, and automated study generation framework. Developed the Predictor Impact Score methodology operationalizing Bradford Hill criteria for ranking causal relationships in observational data. When he tells people this at parties, they usually say they have to go check on their car.

Individual study outputs are automated, reproducible, and open to external audit. (Which I would seriously recommend.)

Contact

Cite This Study

APA Format
Sinn, M. P. (2026). Causal Analysis: Does Maple Pollen Index Affect Sleep Duration?. The Journal of Citizen Science. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-6038280-effect-1867-population-study
BibTeX 
@misc{sinn_cause_6038280_effect_1867_population_study_2026,
  author = {Sinn, Mike P.},
  title = {Causal Analysis: Does Maple Pollen Index Affect Sleep Duration?},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {The Journal of Citizen Science},
  url = {https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-6038280-effect-1867-population-study},
  note = {Accessed: January 6, 2026}
}
Chicago/Turabian
Sinn, Mike P. "Causal Analysis: Does Maple Pollen Index Affect Sleep Duration?." The Journal of Citizen Science. Accessed January 6, 2026. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-6038280-effect-1867-population-study.
Harvard
Sinn, M.P., 2026. Causal Analysis: Does Maple Pollen Index Affect Sleep Duration?. [Aggregated N-of-1 Study] The Journal of Citizen Science. Available at: https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-6038280-effect-1867-population-study [Accessed January 6, 2026].

Study Type: Aggregated N-of-1 Observational Mega-Study
Evidence Level: Level II (Real-World Evidence)
Methodology: Bradford Hill Criteria with Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

References

This framework was originally developed in 2013 based on the Bradford Hill criteria. Subsequent literature has independently validated similar approaches to causal inference from observational data:

  1. Hill, A.B. (1965). The environment and disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58(5), 295-300. [Bradford Hill criteria]
  2. Lillie, E.O., et al. (2011). The n-of-1 clinical trial: the ultimate strategy for individualizing medicine? Personalized Medicine, 8(2), 161-173. [N-of-1 methodology]
  3. Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference . Cambridge University Press. [Causal inference]
  4. Hernán, M.A., & Robins, J.M. (2020). Causal Inference: What If . Chapman & Hall/CRC. [Free textbook]
  5. FDA (2018). Framework for FDA's Real-World Evidence Program . U.S. Food and Drug Administration. [Regulatory context]
  6. Duan, N., et al. (2013). Single-patient (n-of-1) trials: a pragmatic clinical decision methodology . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 66(8), S21-S28.
  7. Platt, R., et al. (2018). The FDA Sentinel Initiative—an evolving national resource . New England Journal of Medicine, 379(22), 2091-2093.

This information is for research and educational purposes only, not medical advice. Consult a healthcare provider before making health decisions. Terms of Service

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