Higher Precipitation Predicts Very Slightly Higher Minutes To Fall Asleep for Population

Higher Precipitation Predicts Very Slightly Higher Minutes To Fall Asleep for Population

Contents

Variables

A
Precipitation 428
A
Minutes to Fall Asleep 616

Categories

A
Environment 564
A
Sleep 111

Tags

High Confidence
Very Weak Effect Size
Positive Relationship
Population Study
cause image gauge image effect image
Participants reported a 70.6% average increase in Minutes To Fall Asleep following above average Precipitation.

Abstract

Minutes To Fall Asleep was generally 184% higher than average after an average of 4.04 millimeters of Precipitation over the previous 7 days.

Aggregated data from 14 study participants suggests with a HIGH degree of confidence (p=0.18, 95% CI -5.579 to 5.674) that Precipitation has a very weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.0473) with Minutes To Fall Asleep.

The highest quartile of Minutes To Fall Asleep measurements were observed following an average 3.08 millimeters Precipitation.

The lowest quartile of Minutes To Fall Asleep measurements were observed following an average 1.9 millimeters of Precipitation.

After an onset delay of 0 seconds, Minutes To Fall Asleep is typically 20% lower than average over the 7 days following around 1.9 millimeters of Precipitation Precipitation.

Keywords: Precipitation, Minutes To Fall Asleep, N-of-1 trials, real-world evidence, causal inference, observational study

Moderate Confidence: Based on 14 participants. More data would increase certainty.

Results

Primary Findings

Analysis of 9,010 paired observations from 14 participants revealed a substantial improvement in Minutes To Fall Asleep following above-average Precipitation exposure.

+140.6%
Change from Baseline
Substantial effect on Minutes To Fall Asleep
0.02
Predictor Impact Score
Insufficient evidence for causal relationship

Supporting Statistics

High
Confidence
0.047
Correlation (r)
p = 0.851
Significance
z = 0.26
Effect Magnitude
φ = 1.00
Temporality

What This Means

When participants had above-average Precipitation:

  • Minutes To Fall Asleep increased by 140.6% on average
  • Temporal analysis supports Precipitation as the predictor (not the outcome)

Interpreting the Predictor Impact Score

The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) integrates multiple Bradford Hill causal criteria into a single metric. Use this guide to interpret the score:

PIS Range Interpretation Recommended Action
≥ 0.5 Strong evidence High priority for RCT validation
0.3 - 0.5 Moderate evidence Consider for experimental investigation
0.1 - 0.3 Weak evidence Monitor for additional data
< 0.1 Insufficient evidence Low priority; may be noise

Note: PIS is a prioritization heuristic, not proof of causation. High scores indicate relationships worth investigating, not confirmed causal effects. With only 14 participants, these scores are preliminary and will become more reliable as additional data is collected.

Optimal Daily Values (Precision Dosing)

Based on the observed relationship, we can estimate the predictor values associated with the best and worst outcomes. These values enable personalized dosing recommendations.

⚠️ Preliminary Data: With 14 participants and 9,010 observations, these optimal values are preliminary estimates. As more data is collected, precision will improve significantly.

4.0 mm
Value Predicting Higher Minutes To Fall Asleep
Average Precipitation when Minutes To Fall Asleep exceeded its mean
2.0 mm
Value Predicting Lower Minutes To Fall Asleep
Average Precipitation when Minutes To Fall Asleep was below its mean

What This Suggests

Minutes To Fall Asleep tended to be highest when Precipitation was around 4.0 mm.

Important: These values reflect correlations, not guaranteed causal effects. Individual responses may vary. Use as a starting point for personal experimentation, not as a definitive prescription. Consult healthcare providers before making treatment decisions.

Population Correlation

Precipitation Distribution

Minutes To Fall Asleep Distribution

Relationship Analysis

Statistical Summary

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Precipitation
Effect Variable Name Minutes To Fall Asleep
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.017817981706232
Confidence Level HIGH
Confidence Interval 5.626293169056
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.0473
Critical T Value 1.6472857142857
Average Precipitation Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Minutes To Fall Asleep 3.08 millimeters
Average Precipitation Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Minutes To Fall Asleep 1.9 millimeters
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 9010
Optimal Pearson Product 0.084699636083736
P Value 0.18010539664319
Statistical Significance 0.851
Strength of Relationship 5.626293169056
Study Type population
Analysis Performed At 2026-01-04
Number of Participants 14

Precipitation Info

Property Value
Variable Name Precipitation
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2020-09-11
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 64.239888813382
Mean 1.2347003153194 millimeters
Median 0.060031061746988 millimeters
Minimum Allowed Value 0 millimeters
Number of Aggregate Predictors 0
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 428
Number of Measurements 396520
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 63521
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 3.6917755248808
Unit Millimeters
User Variables 698
UPC 721866373106
Variable Category Environment
Variable ID 5954746
Variance 21.734974233023

Minutes to Fall Asleep Info

Property Value
Variable Name Minutes To Fall Asleep
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2020-10-11
Duration of Action 24 hours
Filling Value 0
Kurtosis 320.31354667453
Maximum Allowed Value 7 days
Mean 22 seconds
Median 3 seconds
Minimum Allowed Value 0 seconds
Number of Aggregate Predictors 513
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 103
Number of Measurements 40889
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 5630
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 1.6916126656163
Unit Minutes
User Variables 92
UPC 0
Variable Category Sleep
Variable ID 5964701
Variance 25.128038850073

Introduction

Background

Precipitation (Environment) and Minutes To Fall Asleep (Sleep) are both important factors in understanding human health and well-being. This study investigates the relationship between these two variables using real-world observational data.

Traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), while the gold standard for causal inference, are often impractical, expensive, or unethical for studying many health relationships. Aggregated N-of-1 observational studies offer a complementary approach that leverages within-subject comparisons across large populations to identify meaningful patterns.

Research Question

Does Precipitation affect Minutes To Fall Asleep?

Additionally, we seek to determine:

  1. What is the direction and magnitude of any effect?
  2. How confident can we be in this relationship based on the available data?
  3. What are the optimal levels of Precipitation for maximizing Minutes To Fall Asleep?

Study Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Precipitation and Minutes To Fall Asleep. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Precipitation values most likely to produce optimal Minutes To Fall Asleep values.

Study Overview

This is a population-level observational study using aggregated N-of-1 methodology. By aggregating individual N-of-1 experiments, we can identify population-level patterns while accounting for the substantial individual variation that exists in most health relationships. Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline, enabling intuitive interpretation and comparison across different measures.

Full Methodology: Framework for Real-World Evidence-Based Pharmacovigilance: Aggregated N-of-1 Trials for Quantifying Treatment Effects

Discussion

Interpretation of Findings

Participants experienced a 140.6% improvement in Minutes To Fall Asleep following above-average Precipitation exposure. The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) of 0.02 indicates insufficient evidence for a causal relationship.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Minutes To Fall Asleep is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. This suggests that the Precipitation value may not have a significant influence on the Minutes To Fall Asleep value, or that more data is needed to detect an effect.

After treatment, a 70.6% increase (7 minutes) from the mean baseline 2 minutes was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 704.714%. The observed change was 0.255115 times the standard deviation.

A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value < 0.05).

T-Test Details
Observed t-value: 1.399
Critical t-value: 1.647

Since t = 1.40 < 1.65, we cannot reject the null hypothesis.

Biological Plausibility

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between predictor and outcome is critical for interpreting observational findings. This is where human judgment excels beyond statistical analysis.

Community feedback on the biological plausibility of this relationship is still being collected. Consider the known mechanisms by which Precipitation might influence Minutes To Fall Asleep.

Bradford Hill Criteria Assessment

The Bradford Hill criteria provide a framework for assessing causality in observational studies. Our methodology operationalizes six of the nine criteria through the Predictor Impact Score (PIS):

Criterion How Addressed Metric
Strength Effect size magnitude Percent change from baseline (Δ%), z-score
Consistency Cross-participant replication Number of users (N), number of pairs (n)
Temporality Predictor precedes outcome Temporality factor (φ), onset delay (δ > 0)
Biological Gradient Dose-response relationship Gradient coefficient (φgradient)
Plausibility Biological mechanism assessment Community votes on mechanism plausibility
Specificity Category appropriateness Interest factor (finterest)

Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

The PIS integrates multiple Bradford Hill criteria into a composite metric quantifying how reliably a predictor affects an outcome. Higher scores indicate stronger evidence:

Population-Level PIS:

$$\text{PIS}_{\text{agg}} = |r_{\text{forward}}| \cdot w \cdot \phi_{\text{users}} \cdot \phi_{\text{pairs}} \cdot \phi_{\text{change}} \cdot \phi_{\text{gradient}}$$

Where φ-factors are saturation functions approaching 1 as evidence accumulates:

  • φusers = 1 - e-N/10 (user saturation)
  • φpairs = 1 - e-n/nsig (pair saturation)
  • φchange = 1 - e-Δspread/Δsig (effect spread saturation)
  • w = weighted average of plausibility votes

Temporality Assessment

We assess evidence for correct causal direction using the temporality factor:

$$\phi_{\text{temporal}} = \frac{|r_{\text{forward}}|}{|r_{\text{forward}}| + |r_{\text{reverse}}|}$$

Values approaching 1 indicate the predictor precedes the outcome (supporting causation); values near 0.5 suggest ambiguous directionality; values near 0 suggest reverse causation or confounding by indication.

Limitations

As with any observational study, correlation does not prove causation. Key limitations include:

  • Unmeasured confounders: Variables not tracked may influence results
  • Self-selection bias: Health trackers may differ from the general population
  • Measurement error: Self-reported data may contain recall bias
  • Confounding by indication: Sicker individuals may use more treatments

However, within-subject comparison and temporal precedence analysis partially mitigate these limitations. If the relationship is merely coincidental, as participants independently modify their Precipitation values, the observed strength will decline over time. Spurious correlations naturally dissipate as more data is collected.

Future Directions

Future research should examine:

  • Subgroup analyses to identify individual differences in response
  • Potential confounders and mediators of the observed relationship
  • Optimal dosing and timing for Precipitation
  • Confirmation through prospective or randomized designs
  • Biological mechanisms underlying the observed effects

Conclusion

📊 Preliminary Findings: With 14 participants, these results are based on limited data. Effect sizes and confidence will improve as more participants contribute data. Consider these findings directional rather than definitive.

Above-average Precipitation was associated with a 140.6% improvement in Minutes To Fall Asleep—a substantial effect. The Predictor Impact Score of 0.02 indicates this relationship is requiring additional data before conclusions.

Bottom Line: Based on a PIS of 0.02 and a 140.6% effect size, this relationship currently lacks sufficient evidence. Continue monitoring as more data becomes available. Note: These conclusions may strengthen or change direction as more data is collected.

These findings contribute to our understanding of how Precipitation may influence Minutes To Fall Asleep in real-world conditions. While preliminary, these results may inform future research directions. As more participants contribute data, the reliability and precision of these findings will improve substantially.

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Methods

Study Design

This study is based on data donated by 14 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 14 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.

This within-subject design is powerful because it controls for all stable individual characteristics (genetics, baseline health status, socioeconomic factors) that might otherwise confound the relationship between variables.

Data Analysis

Temporal Assumptions

The analysis incorporates temporal assumptions about the relationship between variables:

  • Onset Delay: It was assumed that 0 seconds would pass before a change in Precipitation would produce an observable change in Minutes To Fall Asleep.
  • Duration of Action: It was assumed that Precipitation could produce an observable change in Minutes To Fall Asleep for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.

Statistical Methods

For each participant, we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between Precipitation values and subsequent Minutes To Fall Asleep values. Individual correlations were then aggregated using Fisher's z-transformation to produce a population-level estimate:

Individual Correlation:

$$r_i = \frac{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)}{\sqrt{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)^2 \sum(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)^2}}$$

Fisher's Z-Transformation:

$$z_i = \frac{1}{2} \ln\left(\frac{1 + r_i}{1 - r_i}\right)$$

Aggregated Correlation:

$$\bar{r} = \tanh(\bar{z}) \quad \text{where} \quad \bar{z} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} z_i$$

Effect Size Calculation

Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline. For each participant, we compare the outcome following above-average predictor values to the overall baseline outcome:

$$\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}} = \frac{\bar{O}_{\text{follow-up}} - \bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}}{\bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}} \times 100$$

Effect Magnitude (Z-Score)

To assess effect magnitude relative to natural variability, we calculate the z-score:

$$z = \frac{|\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}}|}{\text{RSD}_{\text{baseline}}}$$

where RSDbaseline is the relative standard deviation of outcome during baseline period

A z-score > 2 indicates statistical significance (p < 0.05), meaning the observed change exceeds typical baseline fluctuation and is unlikely due to random variation.

Statistical Significance

Correlation significance is assessed using a two-tailed t-test:

$$t = \frac{r\sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}}$$

We reject the null hypothesis (ρ = 0) at α = 0.05 when |t| exceeds the critical value, providing statistical evidence that the observed relationship is not due to chance.

Data Sources

Precipitation data was primarily collected using Weather. Automatically import temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet light exposure.

Minutes To Fall Asleep data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Data Quality

Data quality measures were applied to ensure reliable results:

  • Minimum Data Requirement: Only participants with sufficient paired observations were included in the analysis.
  • Outlier Handling: Extreme values were winsorized to reduce the influence of measurement errors.
  • Missing Data: Days with missing values were handled using appropriate filling strategies based on the variable type.
  • Test User Exclusion: Test accounts and invalid users were excluded from all analyses.

Principal Investigator

Program & Methods

Mike P. Sinn
Sinn, M. P.

Designed and implemented data collection, aggregation, causal inference pipeline, and automated study generation framework. Developed the Predictor Impact Score methodology operationalizing Bradford Hill criteria for ranking causal relationships in observational data. When he tells people this at parties, they usually say they have to go check on their car.

Individual study outputs are automated, reproducible, and open to external audit. (Which I would seriously recommend.)

Contact

Cite This Study

APA Format
Sinn, M. P. (2026). Causal Analysis: Does Precipitation Affect Minutes To Fall Asleep?. The Journal of Citizen Science. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5954746-effect-5964701-population-study
BibTeX 
@misc{sinn_cause_5954746_effect_5964701_population_study_2026,
  author = {Sinn, Mike P.},
  title = {Causal Analysis: Does Precipitation Affect Minutes To Fall Asleep?},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {The Journal of Citizen Science},
  url = {https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5954746-effect-5964701-population-study},
  note = {Accessed: January 10, 2026}
}
Chicago/Turabian
Sinn, Mike P. "Causal Analysis: Does Precipitation Affect Minutes To Fall Asleep?." The Journal of Citizen Science. Accessed January 10, 2026. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5954746-effect-5964701-population-study.
Harvard
Sinn, M.P., 2026. Causal Analysis: Does Precipitation Affect Minutes To Fall Asleep?. [Aggregated N-of-1 Study] The Journal of Citizen Science. Available at: https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5954746-effect-5964701-population-study [Accessed January 10, 2026].

Study Type: Aggregated N-of-1 Observational Mega-Study
Evidence Level: Level II (Real-World Evidence)
Methodology: Bradford Hill Criteria with Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

References

This framework was originally developed in 2013 based on the Bradford Hill criteria. Subsequent literature has independently validated similar approaches to causal inference from observational data:

  1. Hill, A.B. (1965). The environment and disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58(5), 295-300. [Bradford Hill criteria]
  2. Lillie, E.O., et al. (2011). The n-of-1 clinical trial: the ultimate strategy for individualizing medicine? Personalized Medicine, 8(2), 161-173. [N-of-1 methodology]
  3. Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference . Cambridge University Press. [Causal inference]
  4. Hernán, M.A., & Robins, J.M. (2020). Causal Inference: What If . Chapman & Hall/CRC. [Free textbook]
  5. FDA (2018). Framework for FDA's Real-World Evidence Program . U.S. Food and Drug Administration. [Regulatory context]
  6. Duan, N., et al. (2013). Single-patient (n-of-1) trials: a pragmatic clinical decision methodology . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 66(8), S21-S28.
  7. Platt, R., et al. (2018). The FDA Sentinel Initiative—an evolving national resource . New England Journal of Medicine, 379(22), 2091-2093.

This information is for research and educational purposes only, not medical advice. Consult a healthcare provider before making health decisions. Terms of Service

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