Higher Precipitation Predicts Very Slightly Higher Efficiency Score From Rescuetime for Population

Higher Precipitation Predicts Very Slightly Higher Efficiency Score From Rescuetime for Population

Contents

Variables

A
Precipitation 428
A
Efficiency Score From Rescuetime 3196

Categories

A
Environment 564
A
Goals 126

Tags

Medium Confidence
Very Weak Effect Size
Positive Relationship
Population Study
cause image gauge image effect image
Participants reported a 4.3% average increase in Efficiency Score From Rescuetime following above average Precipitation.

Abstract

Efficiency Score From Rescuetime was generally 5% higher than average after an average of 2.52 millimeters of Precipitation over the previous 7 days.

Aggregated data from 33 study participants suggests with a MEDIUM degree of confidence (p=0.121, 95% CI -2.496 to 2.568) that Precipitation has a very weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.0359) with Efficiency Score From Rescuetime.

The highest quartile of Efficiency Score From Rescuetime measurements were observed following an average 2.59 millimeters Precipitation.

The lowest quartile of Efficiency Score From Rescuetime measurements were observed following an average 2.05 millimeters of Precipitation.

After an onset delay of 0 seconds, Efficiency Score From Rescuetime is typically 2% lower than average over the 7 days following around 2.05 millimeters of Precipitation Precipitation.

Keywords: Precipitation, Efficiency Score From Rescuetime, N-of-1 trials, real-world evidence, causal inference, observational study

High Confidence: With 33 participants, these findings have strong statistical power.

Results

Primary Findings

Analysis of 400 paired observations from 33 participants revealed a minimal improvement in Efficiency Score From Rescuetime following above-average Precipitation exposure.

+2.4%
Change from Baseline
Minimal effect on Efficiency Score From Rescuetime
0.02
Predictor Impact Score
Insufficient evidence for causal relationship

Supporting Statistics

Medium
Confidence
0.036
Correlation (r)
p = 0.878
Significance
z = 0.29
Effect Magnitude
φ = 1.00
Temporality

What This Means

When participants had above-average Precipitation:

  • Efficiency Score From Rescuetime increased by 2.4% on average
  • Temporal analysis supports Precipitation as the predictor (not the outcome)

Interpreting the Predictor Impact Score

The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) integrates multiple Bradford Hill causal criteria into a single metric. Use this guide to interpret the score:

PIS Range Interpretation Recommended Action
≥ 0.5 Strong evidence High priority for RCT validation
0.3 - 0.5 Moderate evidence Consider for experimental investigation
0.1 - 0.3 Weak evidence Monitor for additional data
< 0.1 Insufficient evidence Low priority; may be noise

Note: PIS is a prioritization heuristic, not proof of causation. High scores indicate relationships worth investigating, not confirmed causal effects.

Optimal Daily Values (Precision Dosing)

Based on the observed relationship, we can estimate the predictor values associated with the best and worst outcomes. These values enable personalized dosing recommendations.

ℹ️ Moderate Confidence: Based on 33 participants. Values are reasonably reliable but may refine with additional data.

2.5 mm
Value Predicting Higher Efficiency Score From Rescuetime
Average Precipitation when Efficiency Score From Rescuetime exceeded its mean
2.1 mm
Value Predicting Lower Efficiency Score From Rescuetime
Average Precipitation when Efficiency Score From Rescuetime was below its mean

What This Suggests

Efficiency Score From Rescuetime tended to be highest when Precipitation was around 2.5 mm.

Important: These values reflect correlations, not guaranteed causal effects. Individual responses may vary. Use as a starting point for personal experimentation, not as a definitive prescription. Consult healthcare providers before making treatment decisions.

Population Correlation

Precipitation Distribution

Efficiency Score From Rescuetime Distribution

Relationship Analysis

Statistical Summary

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Precipitation
Effect Variable Name Efficiency Score From Rescuetime
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.017287947377643
Confidence Level MEDIUM
Confidence Interval 2.532
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.0359
Critical T Value 1.6498
Average Precipitation Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Efficiency Score From Rescuetime 2.59 millimeters
Average Precipitation Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Efficiency Score From Rescuetime 2.05 millimeters
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 400
Optimal Pearson Product 0.020935130874299
P Value 0.12116
Statistical Significance 0.878
Strength of Relationship 2.532
Study Type population
Analysis Performed At 2026-01-04
Number of Participants 33

Precipitation Info

Property Value
Variable Name Precipitation
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2020-09-11
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 64.239888813382
Mean 1.2347003153194 millimeters
Median 0.060031061746988 millimeters
Minimum Allowed Value 0 millimeters
Number of Aggregate Predictors 0
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 428
Number of Measurements 396520
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 63521
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 3.6917755248808
Unit Millimeters
User Variables 698
UPC 721866373106
Variable Category Environment
Variable ID 5954746
Variance 21.734974233023

Efficiency Score From Rescuetime Info

Property Value
Variable Name Efficiency Score From Rescuetime
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2022-08-12
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 2.8950328674772
Mean 49.4088875 percent
Median 50.140875 percent
Number of Aggregate Predictors 3036
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 160
Number of Measurements 3557
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 3557
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 18.807714053283
Unit Percent
User Variables 83
UPC 0
Variable Category Goals
Variable ID 5956874
Variance 387.41867577137

Introduction

Background

Precipitation (Environment) and Efficiency Score From Rescuetime (Goals) are both important factors in understanding human health and well-being. This study investigates the relationship between these two variables using real-world observational data.

Traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), while the gold standard for causal inference, are often impractical, expensive, or unethical for studying many health relationships. Aggregated N-of-1 observational studies offer a complementary approach that leverages within-subject comparisons across large populations to identify meaningful patterns.

Research Question

Does Precipitation affect Efficiency Score From Rescuetime?

Additionally, we seek to determine:

  1. What is the direction and magnitude of any effect?
  2. How confident can we be in this relationship based on the available data?
  3. What are the optimal levels of Precipitation for maximizing Efficiency Score From Rescuetime?

Study Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Precipitation and Efficiency Score From Rescuetime. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Precipitation values most likely to produce optimal Efficiency Score From Rescuetime values.

Study Overview

This is a population-level observational study using aggregated N-of-1 methodology. By aggregating individual N-of-1 experiments, we can identify population-level patterns while accounting for the substantial individual variation that exists in most health relationships. Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline, enabling intuitive interpretation and comparison across different measures.

Full Methodology: Framework for Real-World Evidence-Based Pharmacovigilance: Aggregated N-of-1 Trials for Quantifying Treatment Effects

Discussion

Interpretation of Findings

Participants experienced a 2.4% improvement in Efficiency Score From Rescuetime following above-average Precipitation exposure. The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) of 0.02 indicates insufficient evidence for a causal relationship.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Efficiency Score From Rescuetime is statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. The p-value of 0.8780 indicates there is less than a 87.80% probability that this result occurred by chance.

After treatment, a 4.3% increase (2.42 percent) from the mean baseline 48.2 percent was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 10.5%. The observed change was 0.29336 times the standard deviation.

A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value < 0.05).

T-Test Details
Observed t-value: 2.250
Critical t-value: 1.650

Since t = 2.25 > 1.65, we reject the null hypothesis.

Biological Plausibility

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between predictor and outcome is critical for interpreting observational findings. This is where human judgment excels beyond statistical analysis.

Community feedback on the biological plausibility of this relationship is still being collected. Consider the known mechanisms by which Precipitation might influence Efficiency Score From Rescuetime.

Bradford Hill Criteria Assessment

The Bradford Hill criteria provide a framework for assessing causality in observational studies. Our methodology operationalizes six of the nine criteria through the Predictor Impact Score (PIS):

Criterion How Addressed Metric
Strength Effect size magnitude Percent change from baseline (Δ%), z-score
Consistency Cross-participant replication Number of users (N), number of pairs (n)
Temporality Predictor precedes outcome Temporality factor (φ), onset delay (δ > 0)
Biological Gradient Dose-response relationship Gradient coefficient (φgradient)
Plausibility Biological mechanism assessment Community votes on mechanism plausibility
Specificity Category appropriateness Interest factor (finterest)

Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

The PIS integrates multiple Bradford Hill criteria into a composite metric quantifying how reliably a predictor affects an outcome. Higher scores indicate stronger evidence:

Population-Level PIS:

$$\text{PIS}_{\text{agg}} = |r_{\text{forward}}| \cdot w \cdot \phi_{\text{users}} \cdot \phi_{\text{pairs}} \cdot \phi_{\text{change}} \cdot \phi_{\text{gradient}}$$

Where φ-factors are saturation functions approaching 1 as evidence accumulates:

  • φusers = 1 - e-N/10 (user saturation)
  • φpairs = 1 - e-n/nsig (pair saturation)
  • φchange = 1 - e-Δspread/Δsig (effect spread saturation)
  • w = weighted average of plausibility votes

Temporality Assessment

We assess evidence for correct causal direction using the temporality factor:

$$\phi_{\text{temporal}} = \frac{|r_{\text{forward}}|}{|r_{\text{forward}}| + |r_{\text{reverse}}|}$$

Values approaching 1 indicate the predictor precedes the outcome (supporting causation); values near 0.5 suggest ambiguous directionality; values near 0 suggest reverse causation or confounding by indication.

Limitations

As with any observational study, correlation does not prove causation. Key limitations include:

  • Unmeasured confounders: Variables not tracked may influence results
  • Self-selection bias: Health trackers may differ from the general population
  • Measurement error: Self-reported data may contain recall bias
  • Confounding by indication: Sicker individuals may use more treatments

However, within-subject comparison and temporal precedence analysis partially mitigate these limitations. If the relationship is merely coincidental, as participants independently modify their Precipitation values, the observed strength will decline over time. Spurious correlations naturally dissipate as more data is collected.

Future Directions

Future research should examine:

  • Subgroup analyses to identify individual differences in response
  • Potential confounders and mediators of the observed relationship
  • Optimal dosing and timing for Precipitation
  • Confirmation through prospective or randomized designs
  • Biological mechanisms underlying the observed effects

Conclusion

Above-average Precipitation was associated with a 2.4% improvement in Efficiency Score From Rescuetime—a minimal effect. The Predictor Impact Score of 0.02 indicates this relationship is requiring additional data before conclusions.

Bottom Line: Based on a PIS of 0.02 and a 2.4% effect size, this relationship currently lacks sufficient evidence. Continue monitoring as more data becomes available.

These findings contribute to our understanding of how Precipitation may influence Efficiency Score From Rescuetime in real-world conditions. While preliminary, these results may inform future research directions.

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Methods

Study Design

This study is based on data donated by 33 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 33 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.

This within-subject design is powerful because it controls for all stable individual characteristics (genetics, baseline health status, socioeconomic factors) that might otherwise confound the relationship between variables.

Data Analysis

Temporal Assumptions

The analysis incorporates temporal assumptions about the relationship between variables:

  • Onset Delay: It was assumed that 0 seconds would pass before a change in Precipitation would produce an observable change in Efficiency Score From Rescuetime.
  • Duration of Action: It was assumed that Precipitation could produce an observable change in Efficiency Score From Rescuetime for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.

Statistical Methods

For each participant, we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between Precipitation values and subsequent Efficiency Score From Rescuetime values. Individual correlations were then aggregated using Fisher's z-transformation to produce a population-level estimate:

Individual Correlation:

$$r_i = \frac{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)}{\sqrt{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)^2 \sum(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)^2}}$$

Fisher's Z-Transformation:

$$z_i = \frac{1}{2} \ln\left(\frac{1 + r_i}{1 - r_i}\right)$$

Aggregated Correlation:

$$\bar{r} = \tanh(\bar{z}) \quad \text{where} \quad \bar{z} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} z_i$$

Effect Size Calculation

Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline. For each participant, we compare the outcome following above-average predictor values to the overall baseline outcome:

$$\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}} = \frac{\bar{O}_{\text{follow-up}} - \bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}}{\bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}} \times 100$$

Effect Magnitude (Z-Score)

To assess effect magnitude relative to natural variability, we calculate the z-score:

$$z = \frac{|\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}}|}{\text{RSD}_{\text{baseline}}}$$

where RSDbaseline is the relative standard deviation of outcome during baseline period

A z-score > 2 indicates statistical significance (p < 0.05), meaning the observed change exceeds typical baseline fluctuation and is unlikely due to random variation.

Statistical Significance

Correlation significance is assessed using a two-tailed t-test:

$$t = \frac{r\sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}}$$

We reject the null hypothesis (ρ = 0) at α = 0.05 when |t| exceeds the critical value, providing statistical evidence that the observed relationship is not due to chance.

Data Sources

Precipitation data was primarily collected using Weather. Automatically import temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet light exposure.

Efficiency Score From Rescuetime data was primarily collected using RescueTime. Detailed reports show which applications and websites you spent time on. Activities are automatically grouped into pre-defined categories with built-in productivity scores covering thousands of websites and applications. You can customize categories and productivity scores to meet your needs.

Data Quality

Data quality measures were applied to ensure reliable results:

  • Minimum Data Requirement: Only participants with sufficient paired observations were included in the analysis.
  • Outlier Handling: Extreme values were winsorized to reduce the influence of measurement errors.
  • Missing Data: Days with missing values were handled using appropriate filling strategies based on the variable type.
  • Test User Exclusion: Test accounts and invalid users were excluded from all analyses.

Principal Investigator

Program & Methods

Mike P. Sinn
Sinn, M. P.

Designed and implemented data collection, aggregation, causal inference pipeline, and automated study generation framework. Developed the Predictor Impact Score methodology operationalizing Bradford Hill criteria for ranking causal relationships in observational data. When he tells people this at parties, they usually say they have to go check on their car.

Individual study outputs are automated, reproducible, and open to external audit. (Which I would seriously recommend.)

Contact

Cite This Study

APA Format
Sinn, M. P. (2026). Causal Analysis: Does Precipitation Affect Efficiency Score From Rescuetime?. The Journal of Citizen Science. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5954746-effect-5956874-population-study
BibTeX 
@misc{sinn_cause_5954746_effect_5956874_population_study_2026,
  author = {Sinn, Mike P.},
  title = {Causal Analysis: Does Precipitation Affect Efficiency Score From Rescuetime?},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {The Journal of Citizen Science},
  url = {https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5954746-effect-5956874-population-study},
  note = {Accessed: January 10, 2026}
}
Chicago/Turabian
Sinn, Mike P. "Causal Analysis: Does Precipitation Affect Efficiency Score From Rescuetime?." The Journal of Citizen Science. Accessed January 10, 2026. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5954746-effect-5956874-population-study.
Harvard
Sinn, M.P., 2026. Causal Analysis: Does Precipitation Affect Efficiency Score From Rescuetime?. [Aggregated N-of-1 Study] The Journal of Citizen Science. Available at: https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5954746-effect-5956874-population-study [Accessed January 10, 2026].

Study Type: Aggregated N-of-1 Observational Mega-Study
Evidence Level: Level II (Real-World Evidence)
Methodology: Bradford Hill Criteria with Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

References

This framework was originally developed in 2013 based on the Bradford Hill criteria. Subsequent literature has independently validated similar approaches to causal inference from observational data:

  1. Hill, A.B. (1965). The environment and disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58(5), 295-300. [Bradford Hill criteria]
  2. Lillie, E.O., et al. (2011). The n-of-1 clinical trial: the ultimate strategy for individualizing medicine? Personalized Medicine, 8(2), 161-173. [N-of-1 methodology]
  3. Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference . Cambridge University Press. [Causal inference]
  4. Hernán, M.A., & Robins, J.M. (2020). Causal Inference: What If . Chapman & Hall/CRC. [Free textbook]
  5. FDA (2018). Framework for FDA's Real-World Evidence Program . U.S. Food and Drug Administration. [Regulatory context]
  6. Duan, N., et al. (2013). Single-patient (n-of-1) trials: a pragmatic clinical decision methodology . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 66(8), S21-S28.
  7. Platt, R., et al. (2018). The FDA Sentinel Initiative—an evolving national resource . New England Journal of Medicine, 379(22), 2091-2093.

This information is for research and educational purposes only, not medical advice. Consult a healthcare provider before making health decisions. Terms of Service

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