Higher Cardio Heart Rate Zone Predicts Slightly Lower Shame for Population

Higher Cardio Heart Rate Zone Predicts Slightly Lower Shame for Population

Contents

Variables

A
Cardio Heart Rate Zone 532
A
Shame 1006

Categories

A
Physical Activity 1719
A
Emotions 2028

Actions

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Your Data

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Low Confidence
Weak Effect Size
Negative Relationship
Population Study
cause image gauge image effect image
Participants reported a 37.8% average decrease in Shame following above average Cardio Heart Rate Zone.

Abstract

Shame was generally 0.7% higher than average after 12 minutes of Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes per 7 days.

Aggregated data from 5 study participants suggests with a LOW degree of confidence (p=0.293, 95% CI -1.181 to 0.694) that Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes has a weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.243) with Shame.

The highest quartile of Shame measurements were observed following an average 5 minutes Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes per day.

The lowest quartile of Shame measurements were observed following an average 5 minutes of Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes per day.

After an onset delay of 0 seconds, Shame is typically 8% lower than average over the 7 days following around 5 minutes of Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes.

Keywords: Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes, Shame, N-of-1 trials, real-world evidence, causal inference, observational study

Preliminary: Based on 5 participants. Results may change as more data is collected.

Results

Primary Findings

Analysis of 83 paired observations from 5 participants revealed a minimal improvement in Shame following above-average Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes exposure.

+0.7%
Change from Baseline
Minimal effect on Shame
0.10
Predictor Impact Score
Insufficient evidence for causal relationship

Supporting Statistics

Low
Confidence
-0.243
Correlation (r)
p = 0.061
Significance
z = 0.36
Effect Magnitude
φ = 1.00
Temporality

What This Means

When participants had above-average Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes:

  • Shame increased by 0.7% on average
  • Temporal analysis supports Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes as the predictor (not the outcome)

Interpreting the Predictor Impact Score

The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) integrates multiple Bradford Hill causal criteria into a single metric. Use this guide to interpret the score:

PIS Range Interpretation Recommended Action
≥ 0.5 Strong evidence High priority for RCT validation
0.3 - 0.5 Moderate evidence Consider for experimental investigation
0.1 - 0.3 Weak evidence Monitor for additional data
< 0.1 Insufficient evidence Low priority; may be noise

Note: PIS is a prioritization heuristic, not proof of causation. High scores indicate relationships worth investigating, not confirmed causal effects. With only 5 participants, these scores are preliminary and will become more reliable as additional data is collected.

Optimal Daily Values

No clear dose-response relationship detected. The Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes values associated with high and low Shame are too similar to provide meaningful dosing guidance. This may indicate a threshold effect (any amount works equally well), no effect, or insufficient data variance. With more participants, a clearer pattern may emerge.

Population Correlation

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes Distribution

Shame Distribution

Relationship Analysis

Statistical Summary

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Cardio Heart Rate Zone
Effect Variable Name Shame
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.095770434508442
Confidence Level LOW
Confidence Interval 0.93756122410091
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient -0.2434
Critical T Value 1.8762
Total Cardio Heart Rate Zone Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Shame 5 minutes
Total Cardio Heart Rate Zone Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Shame 5 minutes
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 83
Optimal Pearson Product 0.15186111832589
P Value 0.29259115495387
Statistical Significance 0.0613
Strength of Relationship 0.93756122410091
Study Type population
Analysis Performed At 2026-01-04
Number of Participants 5

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Info

Property Value
Variable Name Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2020-09-22
Duration of Action 7 days
Filling Value 0
Kurtosis 49.094293791265
Maximum Allowed Value 7 days
Mean 5 minutes
Median 70 seconds
Minimum Allowed Value 0 seconds
Number of Aggregate Predictors 376
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 156
Number of Measurements 16700
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 2110
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 9.1168457063063
Unit Minutes
User Variables 105
Variable Category Physical Activity
Variable ID 5211881
Variance 197.84125812039

Shame Info

Property Value
Variable Name Shame
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2020-09-17
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.5182882978692
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.2230770157837 out of 5
Median 2.1592856711705 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Aggregate Predictors 890
Number of Aggregate Outcomes 116
Number of Measurements 20707
Number of Measurements (including those generated by tagged, joined, or child variables) 20608
Public true
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.4756748348929
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
User Variables 1541
UPC 0
Variable Category Emotions
Variable ID 1443
Variance 0.54942944533929

Introduction

Background

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes (Physical Activity) and Shame (Emotions) are both important factors in understanding human health and well-being. This study investigates the relationship between these two variables using real-world observational data.

Traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), while the gold standard for causal inference, are often impractical, expensive, or unethical for studying many health relationships. Aggregated N-of-1 observational studies offer a complementary approach that leverages within-subject comparisons across large populations to identify meaningful patterns.

Research Question

Do Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes affect Shame?

Additionally, we seek to determine:

  1. What is the direction and magnitude of any effect?
  2. How confident can we be in this relationship based on the available data?
  3. What are the optimal levels of Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes for maximizing Shame?

Study Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes and Shame. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes values most likely to produce optimal Shame values.

Study Overview

This is a population-level observational study using aggregated N-of-1 methodology. By aggregating individual N-of-1 experiments, we can identify population-level patterns while accounting for the substantial individual variation that exists in most health relationships. Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline, enabling intuitive interpretation and comparison across different measures.

Full Methodology: Framework for Real-World Evidence-Based Pharmacovigilance: Aggregated N-of-1 Trials for Quantifying Treatment Effects

Discussion

Interpretation of Findings

Participants experienced a 0.7% improvement in Shame following above-average Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes exposure. The Predictor Impact Score (PIS) of 0.10 indicates insufficient evidence for a causal relationship.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Shame is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. This suggests that the Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes value may not have a significant influence on the Shame value, or that more data is needed to detect an effect.

After treatment, a 37.8% decrease (0.0106 out of 5) from the mean baseline 1.52 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 52.12%. The observed change was 0.364243 times the standard deviation.

A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value < 0.05).

T-Test Details
Observed t-value: 0.763
Critical t-value: 1.876

Since t = 0.76 < 1.88, we cannot reject the null hypothesis.

Biological Plausibility

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between predictor and outcome is critical for interpreting observational findings. This is where human judgment excels beyond statistical analysis.

Community feedback on the biological plausibility of this relationship is still being collected. Consider the known mechanisms by which Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes might influence Shame.

Bradford Hill Criteria Assessment

The Bradford Hill criteria provide a framework for assessing causality in observational studies. Our methodology operationalizes six of the nine criteria through the Predictor Impact Score (PIS):

Criterion How Addressed Metric
Strength Effect size magnitude Percent change from baseline (Δ%), z-score
Consistency Cross-participant replication Number of users (N), number of pairs (n)
Temporality Predictor precedes outcome Temporality factor (φ), onset delay (δ > 0)
Biological Gradient Dose-response relationship Gradient coefficient (φgradient)
Plausibility Biological mechanism assessment Community votes on mechanism plausibility
Specificity Category appropriateness Interest factor (finterest)

Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

The PIS integrates multiple Bradford Hill criteria into a composite metric quantifying how reliably a predictor affects an outcome. Higher scores indicate stronger evidence:

Population-Level PIS:

$$\text{PIS}_{\text{agg}} = |r_{\text{forward}}| \cdot w \cdot \phi_{\text{users}} \cdot \phi_{\text{pairs}} \cdot \phi_{\text{change}} \cdot \phi_{\text{gradient}}$$

Where φ-factors are saturation functions approaching 1 as evidence accumulates:

  • φusers = 1 - e-N/10 (user saturation)
  • φpairs = 1 - e-n/nsig (pair saturation)
  • φchange = 1 - e-Δspread/Δsig (effect spread saturation)
  • w = weighted average of plausibility votes

Temporality Assessment

We assess evidence for correct causal direction using the temporality factor:

$$\phi_{\text{temporal}} = \frac{|r_{\text{forward}}|}{|r_{\text{forward}}| + |r_{\text{reverse}}|}$$

Values approaching 1 indicate the predictor precedes the outcome (supporting causation); values near 0.5 suggest ambiguous directionality; values near 0 suggest reverse causation or confounding by indication.

Limitations

As with any observational study, correlation does not prove causation. Key limitations include:

  • Unmeasured confounders: Variables not tracked may influence results
  • Self-selection bias: Health trackers may differ from the general population
  • Measurement error: Self-reported data may contain recall bias
  • Confounding by indication: Sicker individuals may use more treatments

However, within-subject comparison and temporal precedence analysis partially mitigate these limitations. If the relationship is merely coincidental, as participants independently modify their Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes values, the observed strength will decline over time. Spurious correlations naturally dissipate as more data is collected.

Future Directions

Future research should examine:

  • Subgroup analyses to identify individual differences in response
  • Potential confounders and mediators of the observed relationship
  • Optimal dosing and timing for Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes
  • Confirmation through prospective or randomized designs
  • Biological mechanisms underlying the observed effects

Conclusion

📊 Preliminary Findings: With 5 participants, these results are based on limited data. Effect sizes and confidence will improve as more participants contribute data. Consider these findings directional rather than definitive.

Above-average Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes was associated with a 0.7% improvement in Shame—a minimal effect. The Predictor Impact Score of 0.10 indicates this relationship is requiring additional data before conclusions.

Bottom Line: Based on a PIS of 0.10 and a 0.7% effect size, this relationship currently lacks sufficient evidence. Continue monitoring as more data becomes available. Note: These conclusions may strengthen or change direction as more data is collected.

These findings contribute to our understanding of how Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes may influence Shame in real-world conditions. While preliminary, these results may inform future research directions. As more participants contribute data, the reliability and precision of these findings will improve substantially.

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Methods

Study Design

This study is based on data donated by 5 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 5 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.

This within-subject design is powerful because it controls for all stable individual characteristics (genetics, baseline health status, socioeconomic factors) that might otherwise confound the relationship between variables.

Data Analysis

Temporal Assumptions

The analysis incorporates temporal assumptions about the relationship between variables:

  • Onset Delay: It was assumed that 0 seconds would pass before a change in Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes would produce an observable change in Shame.
  • Duration of Action: It was assumed that Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes could produce an observable change in Shame for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.

Statistical Methods

For each participant, we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes values and subsequent Shame values. Individual correlations were then aggregated using Fisher's z-transformation to produce a population-level estimate:

Individual Correlation:

$$r_i = \frac{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)}{\sqrt{\sum(x_{ij} - \bar{x}_i)^2 \sum(y_{ij} - \bar{y}_i)^2}}$$

Fisher's Z-Transformation:

$$z_i = \frac{1}{2} \ln\left(\frac{1 + r_i}{1 - r_i}\right)$$

Aggregated Correlation:

$$\bar{r} = \tanh(\bar{z}) \quad \text{where} \quad \bar{z} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} z_i$$

Effect Size Calculation

Effect sizes are reported as percent change from baseline. For each participant, we compare the outcome following above-average predictor values to the overall baseline outcome:

$$\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}} = \frac{\bar{O}_{\text{follow-up}} - \bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}}{\bar{O}_{\text{baseline}}} \times 100$$

Effect Magnitude (Z-Score)

To assess effect magnitude relative to natural variability, we calculate the z-score:

$$z = \frac{|\Delta\%_{\text{baseline}}|}{\text{RSD}_{\text{baseline}}}$$

where RSDbaseline is the relative standard deviation of outcome during baseline period

A z-score > 2 indicates statistical significance (p < 0.05), meaning the observed change exceeds typical baseline fluctuation and is unlikely due to random variation.

Statistical Significance

Correlation significance is assessed using a two-tailed t-test:

$$t = \frac{r\sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}}$$

We reject the null hypothesis (ρ = 0) at α = 0.05 when |t| exceeds the critical value, providing statistical evidence that the observed relationship is not due to chance.

Data Sources

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Shame data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Data Quality

Data quality measures were applied to ensure reliable results:

  • Minimum Data Requirement: Only participants with sufficient paired observations were included in the analysis.
  • Outlier Handling: Extreme values were winsorized to reduce the influence of measurement errors.
  • Missing Data: Days with missing values were handled using appropriate filling strategies based on the variable type.
  • Test User Exclusion: Test accounts and invalid users were excluded from all analyses.

Principal Investigator

Program & Methods

Mike P. Sinn
Sinn, M. P.

Designed and implemented data collection, aggregation, causal inference pipeline, and automated study generation framework. Developed the Predictor Impact Score methodology operationalizing Bradford Hill criteria for ranking causal relationships in observational data. When he tells people this at parties, they usually say they have to go check on their car.

Individual study outputs are automated, reproducible, and open to external audit. (Which I would seriously recommend.)

Contact

Cite This Study

APA Format
Sinn, M. P. (2026). Causal Analysis: Does Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes Affect Shame?. The Journal of Citizen Science. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5211881-effect-1443-population-study
BibTeX 
@misc{sinn_cause_5211881_effect_1443_population_study_2026,
  author = {Sinn, Mike P.},
  title = {Causal Analysis: Does Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes Affect Shame?},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {The Journal of Citizen Science},
  url = {https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5211881-effect-1443-population-study},
  note = {Accessed: January 8, 2026}
}
Chicago/Turabian
Sinn, Mike P. "Causal Analysis: Does Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes Affect Shame?." The Journal of Citizen Science. Accessed January 8, 2026. https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5211881-effect-1443-population-study.
Harvard
Sinn, M.P., 2026. Causal Analysis: Does Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes Affect Shame?. [Aggregated N-of-1 Study] The Journal of Citizen Science. Available at: https://studies.crowdsourcingcures.org/study/cause-5211881-effect-1443-population-study [Accessed January 8, 2026].

Study Type: Aggregated N-of-1 Observational Mega-Study
Evidence Level: Level II (Real-World Evidence)
Methodology: Bradford Hill Criteria with Predictor Impact Score (PIS)

References

This framework was originally developed in 2013 based on the Bradford Hill criteria. Subsequent literature has independently validated similar approaches to causal inference from observational data:

  1. Hill, A.B. (1965). The environment and disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58(5), 295-300. [Bradford Hill criteria]
  2. Lillie, E.O., et al. (2011). The n-of-1 clinical trial: the ultimate strategy for individualizing medicine? Personalized Medicine, 8(2), 161-173. [N-of-1 methodology]
  3. Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference . Cambridge University Press. [Causal inference]
  4. Hernán, M.A., & Robins, J.M. (2020). Causal Inference: What If . Chapman & Hall/CRC. [Free textbook]
  5. FDA (2018). Framework for FDA's Real-World Evidence Program . U.S. Food and Drug Administration. [Regulatory context]
  6. Duan, N., et al. (2013). Single-patient (n-of-1) trials: a pragmatic clinical decision methodology . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 66(8), S21-S28.
  7. Platt, R., et al. (2018). The FDA Sentinel Initiative—an evolving national resource . New England Journal of Medicine, 379(22), 2091-2093.

This information is for research and educational purposes only, not medical advice. Consult a healthcare provider before making health decisions. Terms of Service

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