Later Sleep Start Time Predicts Very Slightly Lower Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out for Population

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out was generally 16% higher than average after a total of 12 hours of Sleep Start Time over the previous 24 hours.

Aggregated data from 69 study participants suggests with a HIGH degree of confidence (p=0.216, 95% CI -49.192 to 49.186) that Sleep Start Time has a very weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.0029) with Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out.

The highest quartile of Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out measurements were observed following an average 12 hours Sleep Start Time per day.

The lowest quartile of Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out measurements were observed following an average 12 hours of Sleep Start Time per day.

After an onset delay of 0 seconds, Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out is typically 10% lower than average over the 24 hours following around 12 hours Sleep Start Time.

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Sleep Start Time and Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Sleep Start Time values most likely to produce optimal Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out values.

Manual Recording Option

Create a reminder for Sleep Start Time here and record it daily by enabling notifications or using the reminder inbox here .

Manual Recording Option

Create a reminder for Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out here and record it daily by enabling notifications or using the reminder inbox here .

This study is based on data donated by 69 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 69 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.

Sleep Start Time Pre-Processing

Sleep Start Time measurement values below 0 seconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Sleep Start Time measurement values above 24 hours were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Sleep Start Time so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out Pre-Processing

No minimum allowed measurement value was defined for Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out. No missing data filling value was defined for Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.

Predictive Analytics

It was assumed that 0 seconds would pass before a change in Sleep Start Time would produce an observable change in Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out.

It was assumed that Sleep Start Time could produce an observable change in Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out for as much as 24 hours after the stimulus event.

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. This suggests that the Sleep Start Time value does not have a significant influence on the Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out value.

After treatment, a 6.9% increase (-6.45 calories) from the mean baseline 108 calories was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 113.075%. The observed change was 0.570703 times the standard deviation.

A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value < 0.05).

Sleep Start Time data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.

We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

Criteria For Causal Inference

Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)

A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative (R = -0.0029) relationship between Sleep Start Time and Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out.

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)

Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 9125 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Sleep Start Time values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity

Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality

The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient

Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel.

Based on our responses so far,

0 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action for a relationship between Sleep Start Time and Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out.

0 humans feel that any relationship observed between Sleep Start Time and Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out is coincidental.

Coherence

Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment

All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy

The effect of similar factors may be considered.

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 0 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Sleep Start Time and Cardio Heart Rate Zone Calories Out is coincidental.